Cognitive Bias: A Critique of Critiques of Youth Ministry

IMG_5087 Youth ministry is a strange ministry in the Church. And most who care to have an opinion about youth ministry’s methods or importance (or Biblical deviance) have a strong one. It seems like every few months an article makes the popular rounds critiquing or praising youth ministry in general, or critiquing a perceived “common” approach to youth ministry.

At best, most of these articles say very little. At worst, they show severe bias, logical fallacies, and fundamental theological mistakes. We just can’t seem to talk very constructively about youth ministry.

Here’s a few common cognitive biases, fallacies, and errors I’ve come across way too often in critiques of youth ministry of any shape and size. Think of this as vocabulary we can use to keep each other honest. This list could be a lot longer, but I’ve narrowed it down to the ones that piss me off the most.

Cognitive Biases and Logical Fallacies

The first initial problem with talking about youth ministry is the small amount of hard data and statistics we have. Which is the breeding ground for the first error:

Correlation is not Causality

New York and Chicago have reported that as ice cream sales increase, so do the number of murders. Are higher ice cream sales causing more murders? Maybe…

But most likely not. Just because one thing increases and decreases proportionally to another thing, doesn’t prove that one is causing the other to change.

This is a pretty common and tempting mistake. “People who drink red wine live longer.” Maybe… Or maybe people who can afford to drink red wine can afford better health care. “Habited religious orders are exploding with new postulants.” This might be a true statement, but it would not necessarily follow that to increase the number of new postulants in your religious order you should bring back the habit. Would it be worth testing? Yes. Is the increase proof that the habit is attracting new postulants? No.

In youth ministry critiques it sounds like “Parishes with Lifeteen are exploding.” or “Adoration causes parishes to explode.” or “All of the teens who were in a large youth ministry group left the faith in college.” More is needed, and in fact its pretty hard, to prove something is causing something else, and not just a correlation or coincidence. Which leads us to the way people tend to draw these types of conclusions in the first place…

The Plural of Anecdote is not Data

As well meaning as this article and this article is, there is a strong cognitive bias at work here as the main argument: availability bias. When we tell stories of our experience of a youth ministry “My youth ministry was all about hugs and I never learned the faith” and then turn this into a general statement “Youth ministry is about hugs and doesn’t teach people the faith.” we are in danger of building our arguments on sand.

“But, but” you might say “I know two or three other people who have had the same experience.” Ok. That may be true. But there is a strong cognitive bias at work that makes you remember the two or three stories that support your belief, and forget the rest that don’t. The availability bias is our brain’s tendency to remember things that are vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged. This bias tempts us into overestimating a situation as being representative of the way things are in general. The author of this article knows this to some extent by saying “and I’m certain readers can point to hundreds of examples of excellent youth ministry programs”, but then goes on to outline what he believes to be the “strategy for youth ministry” based on multiple personal experiences and anecdotes.

This is helped (or hurt) by the fact that the more a certain view is discussed or anecdotes of this nature are shared in public discourse, the more believable the narrative becomes. (Hence the saying "repeat something long enough and it will become true.)

Bill says, in his experience, youth ministry is just about hugs. Fred and Ted say they feel the same way, and write a blog post about it. Nancy speaks up and says in her experience, this isn’t the case. But who wants to listen to Nancy? We’re all in agreement, so Nancy must be an outlier. GET IT TOGETHER NANCY.

Historical Precedence

Ok, brace yourself. I get real testy with this one. And I know I’ll get a lot of hate mail.

I believe it is beneficial to talk about the way the early Church did ministry or Jesus did ministry. I believe in tradition and I’m not proposing we cut ties with the past. But can we all just drop the whole “I scoured the early Church Fathers and the Bible and couldn’t find any trace of youth ministry.” bit?

This type of argument is rehashed a million different ways. “Jesus didn’t need praise and worship, or guitars, or a youth group, so we shouldn’t either!”

“The early Church promised death and persecution and they had no problem attracting youth with the Gospel without a youth ministry and an instagram account. Heck they didn’t even have the internet!”

Yeah. Brilliant point. Let me ask you a small question. Do you like religious orders? What about seminaries? What about toilet paper? Jesus didn’t use toilet paper! Neither should you!

toilet

Okay, I’m going a little overboard, but the problem with an argument like this I hope should be self-evident. Sure, its a great thing to talk about. But to write an entire critique of youth ministry based on whether or not the early Church had youth ministry seems to be a stretch. Also, its a gross oversimplification of what was occuring in the early Church. To say that first century Christian communities attracted teens in Rome to the faith, and did so without youth ministry, therefore we should critically evaluate youth ministry, is reductive and an oversimplification.

You may as well say something like “If only we had Latin Mass in every parish, that would fix so many of the problems in our Church.” Or “If only we used more praise and worship, more people would come to Mass.” Both could be true, or partially true, but the reality is a lot more complicated. Which leads to…

Not Accounting for the Holy Spirit

So I’m throwing in this one more as an aside that’s really straining gnats, but I believe it is worth mentioning. When we talk about the “effectiveness” of a particular ministry or approach to ministry, we often point to the results or fruits. And Jesus told us we will know a tree by its fruit. But it is easy to forget this amazing quote from Evangelii Nuntiandi:

Techniques of evangelization are good, but even the most advanced ones could not replace the gentle action of the Spirit. The most perfect preparation of the evangelizer has no effect without the Holy Spirit. Without the Holy Spirit the most convincing dialectic has no power over the heart of man. Without Him the most highly developed schemas resting on a sociological or psychological basis are quickly seen to be quite valueless.” EN 75

Ministry isn't a in/out function. If you do all the "right" things, you aren't owed remarkable results. A ministry that produces vocations might be a great ministry. But it might be a horrible ministry that God is still calling priests and religious from. The Holy Spirit can't be boiled down to an equation. Our conversations about youth ministry need to reflect the inability for us to really know for certain how the Holy Spirit might be moving because of, or in spite of, our ministry.

The Bias Bias

I've committed a bunch of biases and fallacies just in writing this article. But I hope we can use this short list to keep our conversations about youth ministry productive, and stray away from the lazy streams of "this caused more vocations" and "in my experience" and "well in the early church" unless it is really necessary.

Feel free to merely comment "The plural of anecdote is not data." or "Correlation is not causality." on your local youth ministry critiquing article, and let's get back to work.

Update: The Saga of Wood Laminate

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! I haven’t written much in a few weeks, for lots of good reasons I would like to catalogue here. Prepare yourself for the mega update post.

The biggest news is that, after 6+ months of looking and looking, and looking, and commuting an hour and a half to work one way each day, and looking more…. we finally bought a house!

We're first time home owners. Buying a home is a harrowing experience. Especially when that total price of the home shows up in your bank account as a big fat red number… So I guess we grew up a little more on Dec. 4th of last year.

So we were blessed to be able to afford a modest home, within 20 minutes of work, with over half an acre lot. We’re really pumped about the lot size for a few reasons:

  1. We have crazy boys.
  2. We want to have chickens.
  3. My wife wants a goat. (I’m not down with this one yet…)

The small downside is that the house was built in the 60’s and has been rented out for the past 10+ years. We decided to replace carpet in the boy’s bedrooms and the office (YESSSS!!!! I GET A OFFICE!!!!!) with wood laminate.

And Thus Begins the Saga of the Wood Laminate

Act 1: The Naivete

So as the wife and I were looking at what needed to be fixed or replaced in the house and talking about wood laminate, an insidious idea crept into our heads:

Well, if we install the laminate ourselves (Me. Myself.) we could save like… $1,000 or more…

So the deal was, if I could buy a super nice dual bevel compound DeWalt mitre saw with some of the hypothetical future money we’d save, I’d do the job. We looked up some Youtube videos on installing wood laminate. Seemed easy enough. Tear up the carpet. Make sure everything’s level. Put down some padding. Install the laminate by tapping it together and interlocking it. Cut some pieces. Drink some beer. Finish in a day or two. Have friends over to marvel at your rich mahogany-looking floors and drink fine wine while listening to Christmas music and laughing.

Act 2: Preparing for Preparing

So on Dec. 4, after a hectic time closing on our house (my driver’s license was expired so we had to drive 1.5 hours back to the in-laws and look for my passport in a trailer we packed up with all our stuff 6 months ago) we closed and I got to pick up the key to our first house. It was pretty surreal.

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I went to Lowes and got a load of supplies and headed to the house. Tearing up the old carpet was pretty easy. Nic helped me tear up carpet. (Nic from the increasingly popular website ngutierrez.com)

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Now, the crucial step in laying wood laminate, or flooring of any type, is prepping the subfloor. That’s the stuff that is under everything. For us that means making sure the concrete slab of this house from 1960 with major foundation repairs is as level and flat as possible.

Hmm….

So I took a really really long time figuring out ways to survey the three rooms, finding low and high spots, checking the levelness of every 6 inches or so. I finally gave up on trying to get our bedrooms level. The whole house slants and slopes so that would be pretty near impossible. All the walls and doors and everything is crooked and there are very few right angles.

Ok.

So it turns out, through some internet research, that what is actually more important than levelness is flatness. Which makes sense. The thing we want to avoid is low or high spots and bumps because these will be felt as you’re walking across the floor and the laminate is buckling and bending.

So we need things to be flat.

Ok.

So after a few more trips to Lowes I buy a bag of this patching material for concrete subfloors to use in small areas where you find a low spot. I was pretty intimidated by the idea of pouring self leveling crap all over the entire room, so I thought I’d pick the easy way out with this stuff. I started with a low spot in the office. I prepped and planned for way too long and one night after work while by myself I went for it, which is where things began to get real interesting…

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Act 3: The First Foibles

I’ve been staying by myself at the house working at Church in the day and going home to the house in the evenings and working on the floors. Working a lot.

The first incidence happened one of these nights. It could have been a Saturday night. Late at night. I’m by myself. I may or may not have by now responsibly consumed an adult beverage or two. I’m ready to pour some concrete.

I’m nervous. And excited. I just made the biggest most intense purchase of my life and I’m about to pour a large bucket of liquid into one of the rooms of this huge debt-building and I can practically feel the testosterone increasing my total body hair count.

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I mixed up some of the patch stuff with water outside in a huge bucket.

Now the important thing to note that explains what follows is that the bag clearly states that you have like 10 minutes to use this stuff before it starts hardening. I now have a huge bucket full of cement that is starting a 10 minute clock ticking in my head.

I rush into the office and pour a tiny bit way in the back near the wall on the low spot. It doesn’t look like that much so I pour a bit more. I stare blankly at this glob of liquid I guess expecting it to do something. Then I get a trowel and start spreading it.

CRAP.

CRAAAAAAAAAP.

Its spreading a lot further then I thought I would be able to spread it. And its THICK. Panic suddenly hits me. I have a 4 inch thick glob of cement in my office that is quickly drying and when I try to spread it out….there is A LOT of it. I’m about to have a concrete bowling ball permanently attached to the back of this office floor.

I frantically get on my knees and start pulling as much of the glob back towards the rest of the room. With the trowel I’m scraping this stuff around me on both sides trying to spread as much of it out as possible.

“aaaahhhhhh……”

I’m literally groaning out loud in frustration and anxiety. I keep saying things out loud like: “$#@! #%$@! @#####$$%%$#@JFDSAF” and “WHAT WAS I THINKINGGGGGGGGG…….” and “ITS TOOOOOOO MUUUUCCCCCHHHHH…..”

I’m spreading. And spreading. My knee goes into some of the concrete mud. The first casualty. Then my shoe gets in some. Great. I’m on my knees trying to get as much of the concrete away from the back of the room as possible. Pulling it towards me and spreading it all around. Its flinging onto the walls. I don’t care if its level at this point, I just care that its not a huge dried glob of permanent cement on the floor. I get a lot of cement on my arm. I scream like a girl and run to the bathroom because I don’t want my arm to be a statue for the rest of my life. I remember I have cement on my shoe and scream again. I remove that dirty shoe and go to the bathroom. I run back into the room and continue with concrete triage.

Then I realize there is now so much concrete on the floor that I can’t reach the back of the room with my trowel anymore. And there are still big lumps.

You devil cement.

Caught in an impossible situation and feeling like I can relate to being slowly crushed by a stupid glacier or something I do some weird combonation of falling and leaning against one of the walls with my arm and reaching down with the other arm to trowel and spread.

I’m out of time. And I can’t reach this big spot right near the back wall. And I NEED to get to that spot. Its so super thick.

I still can’t reach the back of the room.

Desperate times require sacrafices. I decide to step into the concrete mud, getting me closer to the back of the room where I need to spread.

Now a quick lesson about concrete cement stuff. Essentially its very fine powdery sand suspended in liquid. Now right before I stepped in this devil liquid I thought I would gush and stick a bit. Not so. Imagine stepping onto a thin sheet of ice laying on top of a floor of ice. It felt something like that.

So my one foot goes down and I just begin slowly sliding, on one foot, towards the back of the room. Off balance and surprised by the liquid sand demon’s tormentings, I flail my arms and spaz out, which then forces my other foot to have to go down into the mud. I’m now sliding on two feet and taking a few more steps to try to slow my approach to the back of the stupid wall.

I get the back spread out thin and get to some other problem areas and then start fearing that my poor toes have seconds to live before they are forever Han Solo-ed into mishaped blocks of cement. The familiar stomach-dropping and fear coupled with anxiety and defeat washes over me. I run to the bathroom - oh crap I can’t because my feet are covered in cement mud - I crawl to the bathroom and start washing off my feet, hoping that two days from now we aren’t having a conversation with a plumber that sounds like: “Yeah your bathtub pipe is packed solid with cement. Did someone fill your bathtub with cement? It’d be pretty stupid to put lots of cement in your bathtub and down your drains…or to put cement in your bathtub at all…”

Somewhere in North Texas that night a nice woman from our bank who handled our martgage crapped her pants. She did not know why.

These were the amazing results of my FIUY project.

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But wait, there’s more!

The next morning or so my wife drove down to the house, the kids were with a babysitter, and we were going to work all day on the house. We are looking at a windowsill and there is a soft spot. I poke it. Hmm… looks like termite damage. I poke around more and find a lot more soft spots. Hmm… I poke into a pretty big spot AND SEE LOTS OF LIVING TERMITES SCRAMBLE.

“F$#@!!#%^&”

I was not aware that my stomach could travel all the way down to my cemented feet.

We were destroyed. I was convinced that the entire house was filled with termites and at any moment the roof could collapse in on us and that our house just depreciated $100,000. I started wondering how long all five of us could survive on a jar of peanut butter. Maybe the crunchy kind would provide more nutritional value. Plus it would boost morale during the winter months.

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My wife and I went out into the living room to wallow in self-pity for a few silent moments. I tried to flip on a light in the hallway, but it didn’t work. “Great, something else broken.” I tried another light in the house. Nothing.

Our house suddenly had no electricity. Danielle calls the electric company and they thought we wanted the electricty to start on the 11th of December, not the 4th. It was the 6th. I needed electricity to run the shop vac and other power tools. Looks like we aren’t working on the house for a few days…

Act 4: The Kübler-Ross Period

To make this long story less long, the termite damage isn’t as bad as we thought. There was a lot of cosmetic termite damage in the past, but it had been treated. We got the whole house treated and will keep an eye out. Not that big of a problem. The electricty got turned back on and it was nice to have a break away from the house and it also made us realize that this wasn’t just a weekend job, this was going to take some time and love and care.

So the following week I buy more supplies, the people at Lowes are suspicious that I’m sleeping in the kitchen department at night, and other supplies ahem (beer), and get back to work. To make a long story short, the rest of this Saga, and just moving into and fixing up the house in general, is summed up in the Kübler-Ross’ description of the stages of grief.

Lots of denial coupled with ignorance.

“It couldn’t be that hard. Just pour self levling stuff in the entire room and watch it become perfectly level!” “We can fix this!”

Anger.

“WHY IS EVERYTHING COVERED IN CAULK??????????” “MOLD IS GROWING THERE AND I FREAKING HATE NATURE.” “Termites are the spawn of Satan.” “A BLIND MAN ON FIRE COULD PLASTER BETTER THAN THIS”

Lots of bargaining.

“If we put down trim maybe we won’t notice the huge hole.” “It only caves in a little when you walk on it.” “We’ll just put a rug over that.”

Depression.

“We’ll never get this done.” “We’re going to go broke and starve and they’ll find our bodies covered in plaster and termites. I hate termites.”

And lastly, acceptance.

But we’ve finally made a lot of progress. We painted three rooms, put wood flooring and trim in two of them, unpacked the majority of our stuff, and fixed a lot of broken things.

Lots of friends came and helped at different points throughout the whole process, and we couldn’t have gotten this far without them. (Thanks Jon, Kathleen, Nic, Ryan, Cindy, Jim, Randy, Toni, James, Andy, Josh, that guy at Lowes, and everyone else!)

I even built a standing desk in the office out of some scrap wood. The office is really coming along nicely…

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What this all really means

For the last 6 months, our lives have felt pretty transitory. Living with the in-laws, commuting constantly, not having all our stuff, new job, looking for a new house, and everything else that came with this huge transition.

We’re really starting to settle in. It feels great.

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So…with all that being said. I’m excited to have a few small slivers of extra time to work on some projects that I’ve been neglecting. The biggest being…

REVERB CULTURE!

If this is the first time you’ve heard about Reverb Culture, get your butt over to ReverbCulture.com right now.

My commitment to Reverb Culture isn’t waning anytime soon, and even with 6 months of nothing happening on the site, there has been a small and steady stream of activity behind the scenes. People kept buying catechisms, the Facebook page hit 939 likes as of this post, I still get lots of positive emails and comments from people, and a few other behind the scenes things I can’t really mention now.

Anyways, I’m pumped to get back into the swing of things and get Reverb Culture back up and running. God hasn’t stopped tugging my heart toward it and its going to be a wild ride seeing what God does with it.

This site

I’m going to start back up my weekly Tuesday posts on all sorts of random strange topics. I haven’t yet been able to nail down a specific topic or niche or even a set of topics for this site, but I think that’s just fine. The catechism, coffee, and hipsters. And some occasional youth ministry posts.

In Conclusion

If you read this far, I caught my hair on fire once when I was a kid (accident). Stay tuned for more excitement. Whew.

That’ll do pig. That’ll do.

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Merry Thanks-Giving from Your Over-Caffeinated-Catechist

http://youtu.be/TQnXuc-TbeU

"What have you that you did not receive?" 1 Corinthians 4:7

Thanksgiving is just around the corner. Firstly thank you, dear reader, for reading and hanging out here with me on this thing. Its been fun, and I think if you and me stick together, we'll really go somewhere. So in honor of this glorious holiday that is frequently under appreciated and ruined by preemptive commercial Christmas decorations, I thought I should take a minute to send you a personal and intimate video exhorting you to think about the issues this Thanksgiving.

For all Thanksgiving-relevant Catechism passages check out this link.

Eat some turkey for me.

You're welcome.